Clik here to view.
First Immigration, Then Free Trade – Is AI Trump’s Next Target?
Yesterday, Donald Trump shared a rather remarkable post on “Truth Social” about his meeting with the International Longshoremen’s Association, where he strongly criticised automation at American...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Trump 2.0: Can Populist Keynesianism Survive a Hawkish Fed?
The Stage is Set: Familiar Playbook, Different Starting Point As President-elect Trump prepares for his second term, we are entering a period that bears striking similarities to 2016, but with crucial...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Moscow Bitcoins: Stalin, Putin, and Assad’s Gilded Cage
History often rhymes, as Mark Twain is famously quoted as saying. The story of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s flight to Russia—and the presumed transfer of his family’s substantial wealth to...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The ‘Overheating’ Myth: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Putin’s War (The RUST...
I have increasingly become frustrated by the focus on “overheating” of the Russian economy championed by many Western military and geopolitical analysts. The narrative more or less goes something like...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Rent-Seeking Royalties: MAGA Populists Turn on King Musk – A Lesson in Public...
Over the past 24 hours, a remarkable confrontation has unfolded on X (formerly Twitter) that perfectly encapsulates the inherent contradictions in Elon Musk’s political positioning and the broader...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Eeny, Meeny, Miny… Panic? The Fed’s Next Pivot Could Spark Stock Market Sell-Off
As markets hang on every word from the Federal Reserve, a seismic shift in monetary policy could be just around the corner—and I don’t think investors are fully ready for this – yet. While Wall Street...
View ArticleClik here to view.
P-Star Reloaded: Trump’s Tariffs, Powell’s Policy, and Inflation’s Next Act
The Return of Inflation Fears US inflation fears are back. Therefore, I have decided to revisit and update my favorite inflation forecasting model for the US – the P-star model. In my recent post...
View ArticleClik here to view.
I’m Not Panicking About US Debt, I’m Just Breathing Into This Paper Bag
A slightly nervous look at America’s financial future The Story So Far: Everything is Fine(ish) In recent days, I have been asked to write about public debt in the USA. So here we go… If we start by...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Fed gets it right: Central banks should do monetary policy, not climate policy
The idea that central banks should conduct “climate policy” is fortunately dying out. I say fortunately because central banks essentially have only one instrument – how much money they create – and...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Trump Optimism or Tariff Fears? The Curious Case of the January Philly Fed Surge
A Record-Breaking January Jump Last Friday, we got the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey from the Philadelphia Fed, and to say the numbers were eye-popping would be an understatement. The...
View ArticleErdogan Redux: Trump’s Self-Defeating Mix of Tariffs and Demands for Lower...
In the realm of economic policy, there are times when ambition and political rhetoric can overshadow basic numerical coherence. President Donald Trump’s recent declaration at the World Economic Forum...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Trump’s Trade War Could Kill America’s ‘Exorbitant Privilege’
Yesterday, the Trump administration announced new tariffs of 25% on all imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on all imports from China. In response to this announcement – which wasn’t entirely...
View ArticleThe Trump Superspike: If Trust in U.S. Governance Breaks, Interest Rates Will...
In risk departments across Europe’s banks and pension funds, intense discussions are unfolding. The topic? Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior and what it means for financial stability. At first...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Trump’s Tariffs and the Fed: A 1970s Velocity Nightmare in the Making
The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey delivers a stark warning about U.S. monetary stability. Following Trump’s return to the presidency in the November 2024 election, inflation...
View ArticleClik here to view.
When Democracy Fails: US Budget Deficit Accelerating Towards 10% of GDP
A Fiscal Crisis in the Making The United States’ public finances are approaching a historic turning point. With Donald Trump’s re-election to the presidency in November 2024, it is clear that American...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Credibility problems: The Fed isn’t convincing and Truflation isn’t true
Today we got the US inflation (CPI) data for January. Both headline inflation and core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) came in higher than expected. Headline inflation was 3.0%...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Make Inflation Great Again? Trump’s Trade War Sparks Price Surge Fears
Recent developments in US financial markets are painting an increasingly clear picture of rising inflation expectations, a phenomenon we might call ‘Trumpflation’. T he evidence is mounting across...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Erosion of Institutional Democracy: America’s Shift Toward a Latin-Style...
I should start by noting that cultural analysis is not my area of expertise—I typically focus on economic policy and market-driven explanations. However, recent developments in American political...
View ArticleHow Biden and Powell Mismanaged the 2021 Recovery – A Mistake Trump Seems...
The Golden Opportunity—Squandered Four years ago today, just as Biden had become president, I wrote the following on Facebook (in Danish): “No more grumbling from here. How is the US economy doing?...
View ArticleCreating an Interactive Monetary Policy Simulator with AI
How we transformed Market Monetarist theory into an interactive tool with Claude AI Recently, I discussed the risks of political interference in monetary policy and the potential for a 1970s-style...
View Article