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Where is inflation going?
A couple of weeks ago I was invited to do a talk on the topic “Where is inflation going?” at a webinar organised by the Institute of International Monetary Research (IIMR) at University of...
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Estimating and Evaluating a Fed Policy Rule with ChatGPT
Estimating and Evaluating a Fed Policy Rule with ChatGPT* In a collaborative effort with the AI model ChatGPT, I’ve embarked on an analytical exploration of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy...
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AI-Powered Insights into Monetary Policy: Unraveling the Fed’s Latest Moves
In the ever-evolving dance of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting has struck a new chord, setting in motion a fascinating interplay of market forces and policy expectations. As an...
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China’s New Economic Narrative: No Room for Pessimism
In an unprecedented move that echoes through the financial world, China has tightened its grip on economic discourse, effectively outlawing negative narratives surrounding its economy. This...
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2024: The Productivity Boom is Coming
When I was a younger economist, I harboured more apprehensions about the world approaching its demise – or at least the global economy. Yet, paradoxically, as I’ve aged, my perspective has shifted to...
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Why Soaring Rates Have Failed to Kill US Growth
Why hasn’t American growth slowed down more when interest rates have been jacked up? The graph below, which I have created with a little help from data from the Federal Reserve St. Louis’ FRED...
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Did Jay Powell just deliver a near-perfect soft landing? Get the surprising...
We hear it all the time – are we heading for a recession (a hard landing) or a soft landing in the US economy? The question, of course, is what a soft landing is. A way to answer this question is to...
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Unleashing the Creative Spark: AI, Entrepreneurs, and the Future of Content
It is clear that with the opportunities created by artificial intelligence, the volume of content – articles, images, films, audio, etc. – on the internet generated by AI is exploding. This gives rise...
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We feared it would be a return to the 70s, but it might be the return of the...
In my recent post “2024: The Productivity Boom is Coming” I delved into the fascinating trajectory of our current economic landscape, one that defies the gloomy expectations of a 1970s-style...
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An Inflation Pressure Index for the US economy
The American inflationary pressure is falling rapidly. When discussing inflation, there is often a debate about which price index is the correct one to follow. So I thought – why not use them all?...
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What I said about the inflation outlook a year ago and what actually happened
Facebook has just reminded me of what I was doing on this day a year ago – I was giving a presentation at a seminar in Copenhagen organized by Danske Bank for some of the bank’s professional clients,...
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From Merchants to Quants: The Digital Revolution in Retail*
The 1990s and early 2000s witnessed a remarkable technological transformation in financial markets, ultimately leading to significant advancements in transparency and efficiency on a global scale....
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Yen and Yuan: Dual decline driven by demographic dilemmas and the need to...
This morning, the Japanese yen has weakened to 160 against the dollar. This is the weakest level for the Japanese currency since 1990. Depending on how close or far one is from the screen, the...
View ArticleTalking yen, yuan and AI with Nik Bhatia
Tonight, I had a discussion with Nik Bhatia, who had invited me to participate in his podcast ‘The Bitcoin Layer’ to share my views on the continued weakening of the Japanese yen, and why I believe...
View ArticleTalking to David Lin: Why the West Will Thrive – US Power and China’s Slowdown
What should you spend the next 37 minutes on? You should listen to me talk about why I remain so optimistic about the West, and especially why I am convinced that the USA will continue to be the...
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How the AI revolution and backward-looking central banks could trigger...
I have been thinking about the impact on the economy of an increase in productivity y*, for example, due to the AI revolution, and I assume that it takes time for the central bank to realize that the...
View ArticleLarge Language Models can beat analysts, but can they beat the market?
I have had a look at a new interesting paper – “Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models” – where the authors investigates whether an Large Language Model (LLM) can predict earnings as...
View ArticleChina Bear, AI Bull: Reflections on the Future of the Global Economy
In my recent interview with Steven Budgen on the Achieving Alpha Podcast (see the podcast below), we delved into some pressing economic issues, particularly focusing on China’s economic trajectory and...
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“An economist, a basketball player, and a Muslim woman walk into a bar”–...
In my AI/ChatGPT workshops, I often ask ChatGPT to create an image of “an economist and a Muslim woman” to illustrate how AI “thinks.” Artificial intelligence, in its broadest sense, is fundamentally...
View ArticleMacro Musings podcast: AI and its Impact on Monetary Policy and Economics
As AI technology continues to progress, its effects may forever change the world of economics and economic policymaking. I recently had the pleasure of joining David Beckworth on the Macro Musings...
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