A Summer Surprise: A rather massive positive supply shock?

Here are two sets of high-frequency US economic data: first, the daily US “inflation” numbers as measured by Truflation.com and the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock), which is a very good weekly indicator of US real GDP growth.

What are we seeing?

Inflation is sharply down…

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… and (proxy) real GDP growth is sharply up.

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This started in May and has accelerated in June.

I would love to say this is AI-driven, but I have no evidence that that is the case. However, the numbers are truly positive.

So, if you can ignore US politics for a moment and instead look at the US economy, you will see a very positive story unfolding.

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